Thai / English

Asia’s job rescue begins



10 Jan 09
Bangkok Post

Governments pursue emergency strategies to curb unemployment as slowdown bites hard.

As Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his government search for ways to tackle mounting job losses and worker protests, they are hardly alone in Asia - the spectre of mass layoffs has become a common theme.

As the myth of Asia being decoupled from the US or European economies starts to shatter, governments are struggling to keep the unemployment levels low or create new jobs for those who get laid off.

Squeezed in terms of sales volume and pricing, companies across the region are taking the dreaded step of cutting their staff.

In Thailand, some analysts have warned of up to one million local job losses from the global recession, though some business leaders or policymakers say this is too alarmist. In a country that has prided itself on unemployment levels of 2-3% or lower for decades, the prospect of a double-digit jobless rate is alarming. The steps that the government is promoting to save jobs are likely to be in line with the regional and global trend.

Emerging markets that were witnessing labour shortages, such as Vietnam, are expected to see economic growth at a snail’s pace, thus affecting the overall job market.

The decrease in Vietnam’s growth rate this year could entail a loss of 300,000 jobs or 0.65% of the labour force, according to the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MoLISA).

The industrial and services sectors, which employ around nine million workers in total, will be the hardest hit while more than 35 million agricultural labourers will see their working hours reduced.

The ministry plans to create between three million and 3.2 million jobs over this year and next in an effort to keep the urban unemployment rate under 5%, and reduce the proportion of workers involved in agriculture to below 50%.

It also is expecting around 100,000 Vietnamese to find work abroad each year, 60% of them skilled, and 10% from poor districts.

In Malaysia, economists are projecting the jobless rate to rise to between 4% and 4.5% this year following a third-quarter 2008 spike when layoffs were four times those in the second quarter.

A total of 11,560 workers were retrenched in the third quarter. And the rate is expected to accelerate this year, with estimates that between 200,000 and 400,000 people could be laid off should the global slowdown bite deeper into consumer demand.

For export-reliant Malaysia, where external trade to GDP is 172%, manufacturing would be hit hardest. And the electrical and electronic (E&E) and automotive-related sectors would likely be bruised most, Business Times in Singapore reported recently.

Bank Negara figures show almost 16,800 workers were retrenched in 2008, about two-thirds of them from manufacturing. Significantly, almost all of these job losses were in the third quarter.

Fourth-quarter statistics are not yet in, but many observers fear a spurt in retrenchments after Chinese New Year.

Officially, the government has forecast unemployment at 3.5% to 4.5% in 2009, up from an estimated 3.3% in 2008. It has also played down the prospect of widespread unemployment.

According to Human Resources Minister S. Subramaniam, based on feedback from 137 employers, 4,700 workers - mainly in electronics - are expected to be laid off in the first quarter. This is minimal compared with a Malaysian Employers Federation (MEF) projection of 200,000 to 400,000 job losses, mainly in the E&E and automotive sectors.

To stave off retrenchments, most employers are cutting shifts, work days and salaries. In drastic cases, employees have been reduced to working eight days in a month, such as at an auto-related business in Johor, according to news reports.

Mr Subramaniam has estimated that 300,000 Malaysians work in Singapore, mostly in manufacturing where wages are higher. These workers could also see their jobs come under pressure should bottom lines buckle.

Singapore grew at a mere 1.5% last year and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has already warned that the country could be facing a major job losses during the course of this tough year.

The Philippines, which for various reasons had missed out on the global boom during the past few years, is in no better shape as local administrations warn of nearly 11 million people losing jobs over the course of the current crisis, although politicians say the figure is far too pessimistic.

Indonesia, which has faced turbulence in the past when jobs were lost, such as during the regime change after the 1997 crisis, is already taking big steps to address possible problems.

Jakarta has passed a US$6.5-billion fiscal stimulus package to shield the economy from the global crisis and boost growth by as much as 1.5 percentage points in 2009, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said.

She also predicted a less volatile year for the rupiah, suggesting it would find a level around 11,000 per dollar, roughly where it has traded since early December.

The stimulus spending, a lot of it on infrastructure, could keep GDP growth at around 5% this year, the minister said. Many countries would envy 5% growth but for Indonesia the figure would be the weakest in six years.

Economists say Indonesia needs to maintain growth of at least 6% in order to create jobs for school-leavers in the country of 226 million.